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Autor(en): 
  • Clemens Puppe
  • Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk 
     

    (Buch)
    Dieser Artikel gilt, aufgrund seiner Grösse, beim Versand als 2 Artikel!


    Übersicht

    Auf mobile öffnen
     
    Lieferstatus:   i.d.R. innert 5-10 Tagen versandfertig
    Veröffentlichung:  Juli 1991  
    Genre:  Schulbücher 
    ISBN:  9783540542476 
    EAN-Code: 
    9783540542476 
    Verlag:  Springer Berlin Heidelberg 
    Einband:  Kartoniert  
    Sprache:  English  
    Dimensionen:  H 242 mm / B 170 mm / D 7 mm 
    Gewicht:  214 gr 
    Seiten:  116 
    Zus. Info:  Paperback 
    Bewertung: Titel bewerten / Meinung schreiben
    Inhalt:
    During the development of modern probability theory in the 17th cen­ tury it was commonly held that the attractiveness of a gamble offering the payoffs :1:17 ¿¿¿ ,:l: with probabilities Pl, . . . , Pn is given by its expected n value L:~ :l:iPi. Accordingly, the decision problem of choosing among different such gambles - which will be called prospects or lotteries in the sequel-was thought to be solved by maximizing the corresponding expected values. The famous St. Petersburg paradox posed by Nicholas Bernoulli in 1728, however, conclusively demonstrated the fact that individuals l consider more than just the expected value. The resolution of the St. Petersburg paradox was proposed independently by Gabriel Cramer and Nicholas's cousin Daniel Bernoulli [BERNOULLI 1738/1954]. Their argument was that in a gamble with payoffs :l:i the decisive factors are not the payoffs themselves but their subjective values u( :l:i)' According to this argument gambles are evaluated on the basis of the expression L:~ U(Xi)pi. This hypothesis -with a somewhat different interpretation of the function u - has been given a solid axiomatic foundation in 1944 by v. Neumann and Morgenstern and is now known as the expected utility hypothesis. The resulting model has served for a long time as the preeminent theory of choice under risk, especially in its economic applications.

      



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